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A Devil's Deal on Climate at the G20's New Delhi Summit
Brittaney Warren, Lead Researcher on Climate Change, G20 Research Group
September 14, 2023
From September 9 to 10, 2023, G20 leaders met in New Delhi for their annual summit. It was the first time India hosted the G20. India focused its summit on elevating the voices of developing countries, most notably by expanding the G20's membership to officially include the African Union. This matters for climate change, as developing and emerging economies are harder hit by climate-fuelled disasters and have fewer resources to support their recovery. They also have fewer resources to implement and reach their climate and environment targets under the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the Sustainable Development Goals.
India's climate goals at the New Delhi Summit therefore focused on putting pressure on developed countries of the G20 to increase climate financing and technology transfer so that the Global South can meet its climate goals. However, emerging economies – namely the BRICS ones of Brazil, Russia, India, China and Saudi Arabia – also used the opportunity to resist progress on phasing out fossil fuels or subsidies for them.
At New Delhi there were no advances on phasing out fossil fuels (for a list of all the commitments the G20 has made on phasing out fossil fuels see Appendix A). The G20 New Delhi Leaders' Declaration, released on September 9, reiterated the same commitment the leaders have made since the 2009 Pittsburgh Summit to "phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies over the medium term." They only added that they would "increase efforts" to this end. They did not say how they would increase such efforts. It is essential that the G20 plans for a fossil fuel subsidy phase-out; their compliance is only 56% with this commitment, according to the G20 Research Group.
Further, the G20 weakened the signature coal commitment it made at the 2022 Bali Summit. At Bali, the G20 leaders agreed to end all international financing for unabated coal plants by the end of 2023. At New Delhi, they "recognized the importance of … accelerating efforts towards phasedown of unabated coal power" without actually committing to do it. With average compliance with the coal commitment from the Bali Summit at only 33%, the G20 at New Delhi needed to strengthen its commitment, not weaken it.
This is a major backslide. It was apparent at the G20's energy ministerial meeting in Goa on July 22 that progress was at risk. The energy ministers, in their outcome document, stated that some G20 members believed carbon abatement and removal technologies could be used in lieu of reducing the use of fossil fuels. They said: "the importance of making efforts towards phase down of unabated fossil fuels … was emphasized by some members while others had different views on the matter that abatement and removal technologies will address such concerns." Similarly, the environment and climate ministers, at their Chennai meeting on July 28, simply reported that the topic of phasing down unabated fossil fuels was discussed.
In a seeming exchange for this weakened language on coal, some resistant G20 members gave in a little on advancing renewable energy targets. The key development here was on tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. The negotiations in the lead-up to the leaders' meeting signalled a lack of clarity on whether the leaders would reach consensus on a commitment to triple renewable energy capacity. In late July, the energy ministers had first "noted the significance of our voluntary contributions towards efforts to triple [renewable] energy technologies capacity globally … by 2030." Shortly after, the environment ministers "noted" that they discussed tripling renewable energy capacity.
The leaders' declaration subsequently included an agreement to "pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally." However, it added a confusing caveat suggesting there was no commitment to any new ambitious efforts to achieve this goal, by stating the G20 would take action through "existing targets and policies." It is very unclear how members will achieve such a goal through existing targets and policies, since these are currently not ambitious enough to triple renewable energy capacity over the next seven years.
The International Energy Agency recommended that the G20 leaders triple their renewable energy capacity by 2030 due to the "grim reminder that limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C is crucial to avert the worst effects of climate change." This means a rapid reduction in emissions. This in turn means that plans need to be made and executed to slow and stop burning fossil fuel for energy. The G20 members' biggest impact can come from ending the subsidization of the production and consumption of fossil fuels. Recognizing that the renewables sector is not without its own ecological and social challenges, the energy sector still needs to be restructured to meet climate goals. The G20's continuing resistance to de-funding the fossil fuel sector, by weakening its commitments and evading planning, completely undermines its renewable energy commitments and therefore progress on emissions reductions.
If the good angel is whispering to raise renewables and the bad angel is whispering to keep burning, then where does the G20 stand? The G20 does not deny climate change. It acknowledges the science and its driving force of fossil fuels, and confesses that it is not doing enough and that this lack of ambition means the world is in greater danger. The leaders in the New Delhi Declaration stated:
"Noting the IPCC assessments, that the impacts of climate change will be much lower at a temperature increase of 1.5&°C compared with 2.°C, we reiterate our resolve to pursue further efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C." [emphasis added]
"We also take note of the finding of the IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, based on global modelled pathways and assumptions, stating that 'Global GHG emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and at the latest before 2025 in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot and in those that limit warming to 2°C and assume immediate action.'" [emphasis added]
"We note with concern that global ambition and implementation to address climate change remain insufficient to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." [extra emphasis added]
With this knowledge and acknowledgment, the G20 at New Delhi has chosen to make a devil's deal and raise renewables to delay phasing out fossil fuels. Leaders at New Delhi noted how much financing is needed to move renewable energy to the majority share of the global energy mix – $4 trillion. The world gave $7 trillion in subsidies to fossil fuels in 2022 – the highest since the 2015 Paris Agreement to stop climate change was signed. Shifting subsidies would help developing and emerging economies the most, not least by cleaning the air and water. If the G20 made plans to catalyze compliance with its annually parroted commitment to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, the world would stand a chance of avoiding a worse fate.
2009P-18: To phase out and rationalize over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies while providing targeted support for the poorest.
2009P-81: Rationalize and phase out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption.
2010T-60: [We note with appreciation the report on energy subsidies from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), OECD and World Bank. We welcome the work of Finance and Energy Ministers in delivering implementation strategies and timeframes, based on national circumstances, for the rationalization and phase out over the medium term of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, taking into account vulnerable groups and their development needs.] We also encourage continued and full implementation of country-specific strategies and will continue to review progress towards this commitment at upcoming summits.
2010S-33: [To provide broader, forward-looking leadership in the post-crisis economy, we will also continue our work to] rationalize and phase-out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies;
2010-127: We reaffirm our commitment to rationalize and phase-out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, with timing based on national circumstances, while providing targeted support for the poorest.
2010-128: We direct our Finance and Energy Ministers to report back on the progress made in implementing country-specific strategies and in achieving the goals to which we agreed in Pittsburgh and Toronto at the 2011 Summit in France.
2011-43: We reaffirm our commitment to rationalise and phase-out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, while providing targeted support for the poorest
2011-236: We reaffirm our commitment to rationalise and phase-out over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, while providing targeted support for the poorest.
2012-96: we reaffirm our commitment to rationalize and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsides that encourage wasteful consumption over the medium term while providing targeted support for the poorest.
2012-97: [we reaffirm our commitment to rationalize and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsides that encourage wasteful consumption over the medium term while providing targeted support for the poorest.] We ask Finance Ministers to report back by the next Summit on progress made, and acknowledging the relevance of accountability and transparency, to explore options for a voluntary peer review process for G20 members by their next meeting. (accountability)
2013-177: We reaffirm our commitment to rationalize and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption over the medium term while being conscious of necessity to provide targeted support for the poorest.
2014-73: We reaffirm our commitment to rationalise and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, recognising the need to support the poor
2014-199: [G20 countries, agree to work together to:] Rationalise and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, over the medium term, while being conscious of the necessity to provide targeted support for the poor.
2015-85: We reaffirm our commitment to rationalise and phase-out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, over the medium term, recognising the need to support the poor.
2016-82: We also reaffirm our commitment to rationalize and phase-out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption over the medium term, recognizing the need to support the poor.
2016-83: Further, we encourage G20 countries to consider participating in the voluntary peer review process
2017-225: Rationalize and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption building on the voluntary peer-review process.
2017-394: We reaffirm our commitment to rationalise and phase out, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, recognising the need to support the poor.
2017-480: We reaffirm our commitment to rationalise and phase out, over the medium-term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, recognising the need to support the poor and we will endeavour to make further progress in moving forward this commitment.
2018 – none
2019-132: We reaffirm our joint commitment on medium term rationalization and phasing-out of Inefficient Fossil Fuel Subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, while providing targeted support for the poorest.
2020-100: We reaffirm our joint commitment on medium term rationalization and phasing-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, while providing targeted support for the poorest.
2021-118: We will increase our efforts to implement the commitment made in 2009 in Pittsburgh to phase out and rationalize, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and commit to achieve this objective, while providing targeted support for the poorest and the most vulnerable.
2022-48: We will increase our efforts to implement the commitment made in 2009 in Pittsburgh to phase-out and rationalize, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and commit to achieve this objective, while providing targeted support for the poorest and the most vulnerable.
2022-90: In the context of strengthening global efforts to reach the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the goals of the Paris Agreement, as well as implementing the COP26 commitments, we … phase out and rationalize, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and] commit to achieve this objective, while providing targeted support to the poorest and most vulnerable, and in line with national circumstances.
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